UFC 96 has some very solid matchups and along with those matchups comes some very close lines. These arent the most interesting bouts that every fan will seek, but if you can choose the right bets, there is some good money to be made. Well take a look at the complete lineup of betting odds, and give our take.
Keith Jardine (+260) vs. Quinton Jackson (-320): While Jardines line in at +260, Im hesitant to even bet on this fight. There is just too much that can happen here. Jackson could in fact crush Jardine early, but his line is a bit high for me to put down an excessive amount of cash, especially with the spoiling efforts of Keith Jardine fresh in everyones minds.
Gabriel Gonzaga (-175) vs. Shane Carwin (+140): I still like Carwin here, but Id stay away from betting the bank. Carwin can still easily lose this one to a dynamic striking "Napao" Gonzaga. Carwin has the power, wrestling, and capability of punishing Gonzaga, but its a hard sell for some fans. Its a risky bet.
Mark Munoz (+140) vs. Matt Hamill (-170): Im staying away from this bout altogether. I can hardly even imagine picking this fight as both guys are great wrestlers with solid credentials, but we havent seen unbelievable striking from either fighter. Hamill should have the advantage standing, but barely, so itll come down to cage experience and overall toughness. I think Hamill can edge out Munoz by stuffing takedowns and punching at Munoz, but its too close to call. Ill stay away from this fight.
Brandon Vera (-570) vs. Michael Patt (+440): I dont think well see a Paulo Thiago-esque upset here. Vera should easily win this one, but at -570, Im not throwing down boatloads of money to win very little.
Gray Maynard (-165) vs. Jim Miller (+150): Tough fight to call. Maynard has great power, solid wrestling, and is able to stay away from the submission. Miller is an absolute animal. He has solid cardio, great submissions, toughness, and has the ability to make opponents fight his fight. Miller is a solid underdog bet here.
Jason Brilz (+120) vs. Tim Boetsch (-150): Boetsch has burned me before, so Ill likely stay away from this fight, but Brilz isnt a bad bet here. He has size, good wrestling, and punishing ground and pound. Boetsch has a much more dynamic standup game, and he has the wrestling background to counter Brilz. Im picking Boetsch, but Im going to stay away from this line as it could have upset written on it.
Jason Day (+150) vs. Kendall Grove (-170): Another tough fight to pick, but Day may be another underdog bid. Grove hasnt had very much luck against power punchers, and this may be no different.
Matt Brown (+120) vs. Pete Sell (-140): Another matchup in which the favorite should win, but it isnt definitive. Brown doesnt have the overall skillset that "Drago" does, but he could end up winning here. Sell is the safe pick, but is he worth the money? Im not so sure.
Aaron Riley (-225) vs. Shane Nelson (+175): Riley should be the pick here. Nelson isnt much of a finisher while Riley has a veteran record, much more experience, and hes a tough well-rounded fighter. He can also finish. Look for Riley to win here.
Ryan Madigan (+260) vs. Tamdan McCrory (-350): This one has me a bit baffled. McCrory will be dominating on the floor, but Madigan has unbelievable striking. Hes a former WCL combatant, and Ive seen a lot of what he can do. Hes tall like McCrory, and should give him problems. This might be a decent underdog bet, but Ill go with McCrory. The line is too high for me, so Ill stay away. However, this could be an upset bid for Madigan. Very good line for that.
Overall Advice
Very tough event to bet on, in my mind. There are too many "what ifs" on this card to make a lot of solid bets. Im more inclined to abstain from betting on this card than many of the other cards.
Ill likely small bet on: Carwin, Miller, and Day as underdog bids, but I wont push more than 20 on each. There is a good chance I could lose that, but thats what betting on these bouts is all about, the risk. To be perfectly honest, Im going to throw a bit down on Ryan Madigan just because he has some solid striking, and McCrory might get overwhelmed.
Parlay options are everywhere, but very, very risky. I really dont know where to begin. The most solid bet is Vera, but at -580, its not even worth the time. I may lay 20 down on Carwin, Miller, Hamill as a miracle parlay, but after that, Im just not convinced this card can payout big. Too many what ifs.